August 10, 2022; Montreal, QC, Canada; Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) hits a forehand against Tommy Paul (USA) (not pictured) in the second round at IGA Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports
- The ATP Western and Southern Open starts on Monday August 15
- Denis Shapovalov has dropped his first-round match in seven of his last eight tournaments
- See below for full first-round odds, plus analysis and best picks to target
As the great Bill Belichick so aptly put it, “We’re in Cincinnati.” Such is the case with the best male tennis players in the world this week, as they will flock to Cincinnati for the ATP Western and Southern Open.
A star-studded group headlines contenders atop the odds table, including 2019 champion Daniil Medvedev, 2013 champion Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz and Nick Kyrgios.
Conspicuously absent from this list is Wimbledon champion Novak Djokovic, who encountered travel problems trying to enter the United States and was forced to withdraw.
ATP Western and Southern Open Round 1 Odds
|Matteo Berretini||-2.5 (-125)||-200||O 22.5 (-130)|
|Frances Tiafoe||+2.5 (-115)||+150||U 22.5 (-110)|
|Benjamin Bonzi||+1.5 (-120)||+125||O 25.5 (-120)|
|John Isner||-1.5 (-120)||-160||U 25.5 (-115)|
|Taylor Harry Fitz||-4.5 (-120)||-425||O 21.5 (-125)|
|Sebastien Baez||+4.5 (-120)||+290||U 21.5 (-115)|
|Aslan Karatsev||+3.5 (-150)||+150||O 22.5 (-110)|
|Brandon Nakashima||-3.5 (+105)||-200||U 22.5 (-130)|
|Roberto Bautista Agut||-3.5 (-125)||-300||O 21.5 (-110)|
|Francois Cerundolo||+3.5 (-110)||+220||U 21.5 (-130)|
|Botic Van De Zandschulp||-0.5 (-125)||-125||O 23.5 (-125)|
|Maxime Cressy||+0.5 (-115)||-105||U 23.5 (-115)|
|Karen Khachanov||+1.5 (-125)||+105||O 23.5 (-110)|
|Sebastien Korda||-1.5 (-115)||-135||U 23.5 (-130)|
|mackenzie mcdonald||-3.5 (-115)||-245||O 21.5 (-135)|
|Nikoloz Basilashvili||+3.5 (-125)||+180||U 21.5 (-105)|
|Emil Ruusuvuori||-2.5 (-140)||-220||O 22.5 (-110)|
|Jeffrey John Wolf||+2.5 (+100)||+165||U 22.5 (-130)|
|Alex Molcan||+1.5 (-115)||+125||O 22.5 (-110)|
|Diego Schwartzman||-1.5 (-125)||-160||U 22.5 (-130)|
|Rune of Holger Vitus Nodskov||+3.5 (+110)||+260||O 21.5 (-125)|
|Cameron Norrie||-3.5 (-155)||-360||U 21.5 (-115)|
|Denis Shapovalov||+0.5 (-125)||-110||O 22.5 (-120)|
|Grigor Dimitrov||-0.5 (-115)||-120||U 22.5 (-120)|
|Nick Kyrgios||-3.5 (-170)||-500||O 21.5 (-135)|
|Alejandro Davidovich Fokina||+3.5 (+120)||+340||O 21.5 (-105)|
Odds as of August 13 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Among the group, only Kyrgios didn’t receive a bye for the Round of 16. He is the biggest name in action in the opening round on Monday as he takes on Spaniard Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in a match he is a strong favorite to win.
Shapovalov vs. Dimitrov Pick
The Western & Southern Open is the seventh Masters 1000 series event of the season. These tournaments are usually the biggest tennis betting events outside of the Grand Slam, but they haven’t treated Canadian Denis Shapovalov kindly.
He was ousted in the first round of last week’s stoppage in Montreal and is posting a record of just 5-5 in the 1000 Series tournaments in 2022. He’s topped the round of 32 in just one of his five starts, and it was all the way back in May.
Since Nadal’s victory in Rome, Denis Shapovalov has lost 8 of his last 9 games. I wonder why he let go of Jamie Delgado, especially since his season had been decent so far?
Winning the ATP Cup, AO QF, Dubai SF and Rome QF (defeat against Ruud) seemed rather positive to me.
— Vansh (@vanshv2k) August 3, 2022
Early departures have been the norm lately for Shapovalov, regardless of the prestige of the event. He has lost his opener in seven of his last eight tournaments, losing to seven players ranked 35th in the world or lower.
Monday’s first-round match is a competition scaling up for Shapovalov as he will face world number 19 Grigor Dimitrov. The Bulgarian’s recent form has by no means been spectacular, but he has been more consistent than Shapovalov.
– Tennis TV (@TennisTV) August 9, 2022
Dimitrov has reached at least the round of 16 in two of his last four 1000 Series events, and is 2-1 for life against the Canadiens.
Pick: Grigor Dimitrov -0.5 (-115)
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Rune vs. Norrie Pick
Our next Round 1 focus is the Holger Rune vs. Cameron Norrie match. The latter has been in fine little form lately, while Rune has lost eight of his last 10 games.
The 19-year-old Dane hasn’t beaten anyone in the top 60 since Roland Garos, coming off the field by Pablo Carreno Busta 6-0, 6-3 in Montreal.
Norrie, meanwhile, has advanced to the round of 16 in four consecutive events, with a runner-up result in Mexico and a semi-final berth at Wimbledon during that streak.
– ATP Tour (@atptour) August 10, 2022
The world number 11 won his only career match against Rune, albeit in a three-set thriller. There’s no value on Norrie as a -360 favorite, so play over 21.5 games instead.
They easily surpassed that tally in their first meeting, and Norrie has gone at least three sets in six of their last nine encounters against top 50 opponents.
Choose: Over 21.5 (-125)
Don’t sleep in Alcaraz this week
Now back to the top of the odds table, as Alcaraz represents a fantastic option in the outright market this week. Some might be taken aback by his meltdown in Montreal last week and his post-game comments where he admitted he crumbled under the pressure of being the number two seed.
However, the teenager has been one of the stars of the ATP Tour this season and we should expect him to use last week’s gaffe as motivation this week.
It was the first time that I couldn’t manage the pressure… I have to be ready to have this pressure, to live these kind of moments, and learn to manage it! 💪🏻 pic.twitter.com/dLypEV1Ihg
— Carlos Alcaraz (@carlosalcaraz) August 10, 2022
Alcaraz has already won two of the 1000 Series events this season and holds a remarkable 42-7 record with four titles in 2022 alone.
It also has the advantage of being placed in the most favorable quadrant of this week’s draw. Alcaraz’s toughest projected opponent heading into the semis is Carper Rudd, a player they are 2-0 against this season.
Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to win
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