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Jon Rahm among 5 Sunday picks

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Matthew Fitzpatrick and Will Zalatoris are currently T1 with a one shot lead at 4 under after the US Open third round. Now we look forward to Sunday’s fourth round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack the PrizePicks.

Below I give my five flex plays PrizePicks for the fourth round of the 2022 US Open. For those unfamiliar with flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.

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Using the five games below, getting five of five coupons registers an 8x payout, four of five coupons registers a 1.5x payout, and three of five coupons registers a 0.4x payout.

PrizePicks Play

Jon Rahm: Round 4 Under 71 Strokes

Rahm is T3 at 4 under after shooting a 71 on Saturday. Third round 71 doesn’t tell the whole story for Rahm as he should have easily gone under that number before a collapse on the 18th hole that led to a double bogey.

Assuming he doesn’t base again on the last hole on Sunday, Rahm should find himself under that total. Rahm has been dominant across the board so far in the tournament in all vital metrics outside of SG: Approach-the-Green.

Among the remaining field, Rahm ranks third in SG: Putting, 26th in SG: Around-the-Green, second in SG: Off-the-Tee, and 16th in SG: Tee-to-Green. After shooting a 71 or less in each of the first three rounds, Rahm should be a good bet to continue his solid game on Sunday.

I wouldn’t play that total less than 71.

Patrick Reed: Round 4 of 73 moves

Patrick Reed is T45 at 6 over par after shooting a 75 on Saturday. After successfully hitting this prop in round three, I return to the pit.

Reed’s play around the green has been his saving grace so far in this tournament as the rest of his game has been worthy of fading. Among the remaining field, Reed only ranks 55th in SG: Approach-the-Green, 48th in SG: Off-the-Tee, and 48th in SG: Tee-to-Green.

Reed will be looking forward to making his LIV Tour debut as his game continues to dwindle and I don’t see him having much success in the final round of this tournament.

I would play this number until 73.5.

Justin Thomas: Round 4 of 71 moves

This is another prop we managed to hit on Saturday and I’m picking it up. Thomas is T25 at 3-over par after shooting a 72 in the third round.

Like Reed, Thomas’ game in this tournament was only saved by one aspect of his game: his iron game. Other than that, the rest of Thomas’ game struggled mightily. He ranks just 51st among the remaining field in SG: Putting, 45th in SG: Around-the-Green and 30th in SG: Off-the-Tee.

Thomas’ frustration began early in the third round when rules officials did not give him free relief from a water drain, and the rest of his round struggled after that. With Thomas entering the third round already frustrated because his game wasn’t at the level it’s been all season, I don’t expect him to have much confidence to bounce back into the fourth round with a such a big deficit between him and the top of the standings.

I would play that total up to 71.5.

Will Zalatoris: Round 4 of 71 moves

As I mentioned in the intro, Will Zalatoris is T1 at 4 under after shooting a 67 on Saturday. This piece is more of a fade from recent history than anything else as Zalatoris finds himself in this position quite often and doesn’t finish the job.

Throughout his young career, Zalatoris always seemed to find himself at the top of the leaderboard without being able to come away with a victory. Apart from his withdrawal from the Open Championship in 2021, Zalatoris has finished in the top eight – winless – in each of his last four major championships.

His metrics are great this tournament and there’s no reason he can’t top the leaderboard by the end of this tournament. However, as a big fan of Zalatoris, I know the high probability that he won’t be able to do it one more time.

I wouldn’t play this number higher than 71.

Brooks Koepka: 4th round in 72.5 strokes

Brooks Koepka is T40 at 5 after shooting a 75 on Saturday. Koepka struggled mightily in the third round and should have shot even higher had it not been for his excellent putting.

The rest of his game was brutal as he placed 50th among the field in SG: Around-the-Green, 61st in SG: Approach-the-Green, and 60th in SG: Tee-to-Green. While Koepka has dominated the US Open in the past, it looks like his troubled year will continue on Sunday as he is far too far away to make a comeback.

I wouldn’t play that total above 72.5.

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