NASCAR 2022 at Pocono odds, start time, surprising picks, race predictions, TV: Model dodging Chase Elliott


With only six races left in the Cup Series regular season, a number of NASCAR veterans are still looking for their first wins of the year. Entering the 2022 M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 on Sunday, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Ryan Blaney have yet to claim the checkered flag, although they are still in contention for the NASCAR Playoffs. Pocono Raceway will host this weekend’s race, which last year saw Kyle Busch become the winningest active driver with his 59th victory. The 2022 NASCAR green flag at Pocono Raceway drops at 3 p.m. ET Sunday in the United States (streaming now on FuboTV).

Busch, a four-time NASCAR winner at Pocono, is the 6-1 favorite at Caesars Sportsbook. Denny Hamlin is next at 13-2 in the 2022 NASCAR at Pocono, while Kyle Larson is 7-1. Truex Jr. and Harvick are both 10-1, while Blaney is 12-1 to earn his first win of the year. Before you run through the 2022 M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 starting lineup and make 2022 NASCAR Pocono predictions, be sure to see the latest NASCAR picks at Pocono from SportsLine’s proven projection model.


Developed by Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates each race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a solid 3-1 win. Then he called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout. McClure’s model also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season finale in Phoenix for win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship.

In total, he has won five of Larson’s wins in a historic season and also went 15-9 on his head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 season. Earlier this season, he was important for Ross Chastain to win in Austin, which gave him a much better chance of winning than his 40-1 odds implied. The model was also high on Joey Logano before winning as a 15-1 underdog at Darlington and again on him when he came back 14-1 for their win at St. Louis. Anyone who followed his lead on those games saw huge returns on their NASCAR picks.

Now the model has simulated the 2022 NASCAR race at Pocono 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the full predicted 2022 M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 rankings.

Best NASCAR 2022 predictions at Pocono

A surprise: The model is high on Joey Logano, even though he is a 15-1 long shot in the final NASCAR 2022 at Pocono. Logano sits seventh in the NASCAR standings and is expected to finish in the top 10 for the ninth time in the past 10 years. That consistency has also shown this season as only Chase Elliott (three) has more wins than Logano’s two. Both victories have come since the start of May as the 2018 Cup Series champion warmed up and the weather did the same.

It’s the first year since 1981 that a single Cup Series race has been held at Pocono Raceway, but when the track had two last summer, Logano placed in the top 10 in each. He also has a NASCAR win at Pocono on his 2012 resume, and Logano also won on the track in his last race on the ARCA Menards Series. Pocono is a 2.5-mile intermediate track, as is Indianapolis Motor Speedway, and counting both, Logano has finished in the top 10 in his last three starts. So, he should enter NASCAR at Pocono 2022 with a lot of confidence. Find out which other NASCAR underdogs to choose here.

And a huge shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the Vegas favorites at 15-2, stumbles big and barely makes the top 10. There are far better values ​​in M&M’s Fan Appreciation 2022 starting grid. 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion holds a comfortable 67-point lead atop the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series standings and has finished first or second in the last four races of the season.

However, while Pocono Raceway is regularly compared to a road course due to its huge emphasis on braking, Elliott has not performed as well there as at the road courses of his career. He’s winless in 12 career starts at “The Tricky Triangle” and has finished outside the top 10 in four of his last five starts there. That includes a 27th-place finish in the most recent race and two more 25th or worse. Check out other favorites to avoid here.

How to Make 2022 NASCAR Picks at Pocono

The model is also targeting another driver with NASCAR 2022 at Pocono odds of 12-1 or higher to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks on SportsLine.

So who wins the M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 2022? And what long shot makes a race at the checkered flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR odds at Pocono below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full predicted 2022 M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 rankings, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson’s wins last season.

2022 M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 odds, field

See all NASCAR Pocono picks, best bets and predictions here

Kyle Busch 6-1
Denny Hamlin 13-2
Kyle Larson 7-1
Chase Elliott 15-2
Martin Truex Jr. 10-1
Kevin Harvick 10-1
William Byron 10-1
Ross Chestnut 10-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Joey Logan 15-1
Alex Bowman 15-1
Christopher Bell 17-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Tyler Red Dick 25-1
Daniel Suarez 28-1
Briscoe Hunt 28-1
Bubba Wallace 30-1
Aric Almirola 50-1
Austin Cindric 50-1
Brad Keselowski 50-1
Erik Jones 75-1
Ricky Stenhouse 75-1
Chris Buescher 75-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Noah Gragson 300-1
Cole Custer 300-1
Justin Haley 500-1
Michael McDowell 500-1
Harrison Burton 750-1
Ty Dillon 1000-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
Todd Gilliland 2500-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1