Sam Burns in position once again

If we thought last weekend’s ranking was star-studded, we’re in for a treat at this week’s US Open. Collin Morikawa and Joel Dahmen lead Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm by a stroke, while Masters champion Scottie Scheffler hides just a stroke further.

The course at the Country Club in Brookline, Mass., proved difficult again on Friday as the field averaged more than two strokes over par for the round. Morikawa shot the round for the day with a 4-under 66, while Rahm, Scheffler, Sam Burns and Brooks Koepka shot 67.

Conditions are only expected to get tougher throughout the weekend as the course continues to dry out and the USGA pushes it to its limits as they do every year at this time. We stuck to the plots with our Thursday night purchases and I think we can expect the cream to continue to rise to the top over the next 36 holes.

Shots gained Explanation

Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans much more detail about how a golfer really played by measuring each shot against the rest of the field.

Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates the average number of shots it takes for a player to put the ball in the hole, regardless of distance and situation. If a player beats these averages, he earns strokes on the field.

Every golf situation is different. Strokes gained measure the performance of players in relation to the situation.

In this article, we’ll cover a variety of shots gained metrics:

• Strokes won: off the tee
• Strokes won: Approach
• Strokes won: Around the green
• Strokes gained: Putting
• Strokes won: Ball strike (i.e. off the tee + approach)
• Shots won: Tee-to-Green (i.e. Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

In general, SG: Ball-Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable over the long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.

You can often find advantages for live betting by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but simply not knocking down putts. Likewise, players with high SG: put numbers may regress in the future.

3 golfers to buy in round 3

The best value I see on the board heading into the weekend is with Sam Burns at +2000 on BetMGM. It’s really hard to get better than that and frankly I don’t want to have to pay too much in a tournament that seems set up for one of the elites at the top of the leaderboard.

Burns posted the second-fastest lap of the day on Friday as he was third-best in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green. He gained 4.30 strokes from the harder morning wave and did it with balance throughout his bag. Burns worked around his issues from the tee to earn shots there and stepped up with more than two earned shots on the approach. He’ll be looking to keep that pace going over the weekend and, just three shots back, he’s a high-quality player who knows how to win as he seeks his fourth win of the season.

I’ve always been pretty open about my hesitation to bet Xander Schauffele on the outright markets. His ratings don’t usually reflect a player who has failed to shut down time and time again, but I will say victory may eventually come to a place where he plays from behind and could post a number without all the pressure of the lead . It’s unclear if that spot will be on Sunday, but at +3000 he’s worth consideration as he continues to improve throughout his run. I like him best for another one of his top 5 finish types and that’s where I’d look first when those odds come out before round three starts.

The only longshot value I see is with Keegan Bradley, who is listed at +8000 on DraftKings and is only four shots back. We know Bradley can still show off some of the best ball-striking on TOUR when he’s at the top of his game and he’s been much better with the flatstick this season as well. To be clear, he still has his lows on the greens, but there seems to be a lot more upside and that’s where a dart at those odds could give us an out on Sunday.

Bradley was the second-best player in the field with his irons on Friday, shooting 4.25 on approach. He carved out a 1-under innings by leaning heavily on that category as he lost hits in the field in every other metric. If he can at least get the other half of his ball hit and find the putter a bit on Saturday, he could definitely make it into the final round and that’s all we’re asking of that number.

3 golfers to disappear in round 3

I have to take a stand on someone at some point and for the third round I’m going to do it with Jon Rahm. I watched a large majority of his game over the first two days and he did what he had to do to save his score on this course, but he certainly wasn’t overly sharp. On lap one, his driver started to pull away from him on the stretch and a few lucky breaks with hooks off the tee saved shots that might have slipped past him. The best example was on the 18th when a young child ran away with his ball, allowing a free drop away from the stands which resulted in a closing birdie.

Friday’s round was a great score at under 3, but he had to fight his way through time and time again for that to happen. While that’s certainly a recipe for success at the US Open, he can’t expect to maintain his spot near the top while losing shots on the court on the approach. I don’t think Rahm will be able to continue relying on the putter to struggle until Sunday and I’m going to put the fade on him because the ball striking is just enough to worry me about this weekend.

The weekend at the US Open will be a pressure unlike anything Nick Hardy has faced on the golf course in his career. He’s T8 after a big round on Friday morning, but for a player with just one top 15 in his PGA Tour career, I’m going to fade him right now.

Hardy also has the second-lowest tee-to-green number of top-10 players, with only McIlroy showing lower. The Illinois graduate gained 4.40 strokes on the greens through the first two rounds, with a nearly even spread over those days. Those putts get a little tougher on the weekends at a major tournament and I think we might see him start to slip on Saturday, but he’s a talented player to watch now and in the future.

My last fade before Saturday is with a player who stormed the course early Friday. MJ Daffue entertained everyone as he dropped bird bombs and even hit one on the hospitality tent deck in round two. He came out at 6 under at one point in the round but fell on his way home and I expect the negative momentum to continue over the weekend.

Daffue wasted shots on the ground in all tee-to-green measures on Friday, winning only with his putter. That’s an annoying stat for a player currently in the top 20 and I just don’t see him staying there unless he finds his ball hitting again.

Blows Data acquired for all players in round 2