This offseason, as players take turns bringing the Larry O’Brien Trophy to their hometowns for parades and parties, the Golden State Warriors front office must reckon with a less pleasant reality: the threat of a financial settlement.
Barring massive extensions in the coming months, guard Jordan Poole and forward Andrew Wiggins will become free agents next summer. To bring these two back to their projected market values while paying Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and the rest of the players already on their books, the Warriors could face a total payroll of 2023-24 – wages and taxes luxury – north of $500 million.
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Majority owner Joe Lacob sees this as an impossibility. The Warriors handed out an NBA-record payroll of about $362 million last season, and they’re reluctant to cross the $400 million threshold. Although Green and Thompson are eligible for the extension this summer, the Golden State brass know their most critical dilemma comes down to one choice: keep Poole or keep Wiggins?
Before making such a big decision, the Warriors would be wise to see how both players progress over the next 12 months. But right now, given all the information out there, Poole seems like he’s more likely to be the odd one out. The reason is simple: Two-way wings like Wiggins are harder to come by than shoot-first guards like Poole.
If the Warriors try to extend Poole this summer, they’ll likely have to start the conversation around four years, $105 million. Anfernee Simons’ four-year, $100 million extension with Portland and Jalen Brunson’s four-year, $104 million deal with the Knicks took just as much.
But given how vital Poole was to a Championship side last season, few could fault him for asking for more. The question is whether that would be a smart use of Warriors resources.
Green reportedly wanted a maximum contract extension of four years. If the Warriors gave him that, they would pay him $30.9 million in 2023-24, which is $3.4 million more than his current player option for this season.
Thompson is under contract until 2023-24 and is content to wait until next summer for a possible extension. By letting Poole sign a huge contract elsewhere in restricted free agency next summer, the Warriors’ projected payroll for 2023-24, including the green extension, could drop from over $500 million to under $350. millions of dollars.
That’s an acceptable number for Lacob, who showed how determined he was to cut costs when he failed to re-sign guard Gary Payton II and forward Otto Porter Jr. Defenders Poole would say that the Warriors could cut even more money. their projected payroll by parting ways with Wiggins. But while that may be true, Golden State needs to think about replacing every player’s production.
Just a few months ago, the Warriors seemed destined to leave Wiggins. Now, after being the second-best player in the playoffs for a championship team, he suddenly looks like a franchise building block – the type of small forward who can make life difficult for an opponent’s top scorer, bouncing back to a high pace and provide an effective No. 2 option for Curry.
The Warriors need to think about more titles, and Wiggins has proven he can be dependable on the biggest stages. His defense against Luka Doncic in the Western Conference Finals and Jayson Tatum in the NBA Finals was a driving force behind Golden State’s fourth championship in eight years.
During the playoffs, the Warriors outscored opponents by 14.4 more points per 100 possessions with Wiggins on the ground than with him on the outside – a better team differential. As for Poole? The Warriors were slightly worse with him than without him during the playoffs, which can be blamed on his below-par defense.
With Curry now solid defensively, Poole was the only Golden State top-eight rotation player who was a liability for that purpose. It is important. While few doubt his attacking potential, he doesn’t necessarily have the tools to become an above-average defender.
Teams such as the Spurs and Magic who could extend him a max or near-max offer sheet in restricted free agency wouldn’t be as worried about Poole’s defense as they’re just trying to make the playoffs. Until a franchise proves they can make the playoffs consistently, they will always focus more on a player’s scoring ability.
If the Warriors let Poole sign elsewhere next summer, their defensive advances in his absence would help undo some of what they would lose with his offense. Even though Golden State doesn’t have a bright young scorer like Poole, it does have promising players like Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody and James Wiseman with a significant offensive advantage.
A Poole departure would mean more opportunities for this group to develop their arsenal of post moves, floaters and jumpers. If Wiggins was the one leaving, the Warriors don’t necessarily have someone who can replace his two-way production. Thompson is expected to re-establish himself as the team’s primary perimeter defender — a responsibility he may not be ready to take on again.
There is also the question of age. At 27, Wiggins should still be in his prime once Curry (34), Green (32) and Thompson (32) decline or retire. It’s easy to imagine Wiggins serving as a 30-minute-a-night aged statesman for Kuminga, Moody and Wiseman.
Fresh off his 23rd birthday, Poole is part of the Warriors’ young core — not a potential bridge between the generations. The odds of Golden State falling well out of action after Curry, Green and Thompson retire seem much higher if Poole stays on Wiggins.
The good news for the Warriors is that they have the luxury of buying time. Although the front office is expected to discuss extensions with Poole and Wiggins in the coming days, he acknowledges that it might be best to see how next season goes.
The only certainty: one day, in the relatively near future, the Warriors will have to face a financial score settlement. How they come out of it could shape the long-term future of the franchise.
Connor Letourneau is a writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: cletourneau@sfchronicle.com. Twitter: @Con_Chron
